Sodium-ion batteries debut, sparking a "technology roadmap" debate

With the advent of sodium-ion batteries, the "technology roadmap" has recently become a hot topic in the power battery industry. Yet amid this fervent discussion, hydrogen fuel cells have remained conspicuously quiet. Just recently, Honda Motor announced it will cease production of its hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle, the Clarity Fuel Cell, starting from August this year. Earlier this year, Nissan also announced it would pause its collaboration with Daimler and Ford on developing fuel-cell vehicles, shifting its focus instead to advancing electric car technology. Not only has Japan experienced a significant setback in this area, but in fact, China's hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle industry is still in its infancy. According to vehicle registration data released by the Ministry of Public Security, as of June 2021, China had 4.93 million pure electric vehicles in circulation—among which the total number of hydrogen fuel-cell cars remained below 10,000 units. A research report from Ping An Securities notes that domestically produced fuel cells are currently dominated by demonstration projects, placing China’s fuel-cell technology roughly 10 to 12 years behind the rapid development of electric vehicles.
It is understood that hydrogen fuel cells are energy conversion devices that generate electricity through an electrochemical reaction between hydrogen and oxygen. Since the process produces only water and heat—making this electrochemical reaction an exothermic one—they can achieve truly zero emissions and zero pollution. However, due to factors such as high manufacturing costs, substantial upfront investments, and incomplete infrastructure development along with inadequate hydrogen storage and transportation systems, the commercialization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles has so far remained slow and challenging.
As one of the earliest countries to invest in the hydrogen fuel cell sector, Japan's two major automakers have recently signaled their intentions to either slow down or even abandon the hydrogen fuel cell approach. Does this mean hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are about to "cool off"? Opinions among automakers regarding the viability of this technology route remain sharply divided.
Opponents, such as Herbert Diess, CEO of the Volkswagen Group, have previously expressed a pessimistic outlook on the prospects of hydrogen fuel cell technology being applied to passenger vehicles during a media interview: "You won’t see any hydrogen-powered passenger cars. The idea of deploying hydrogen fuel cell technology in mass-market applications is simply too optimistic—unrealistic even within the next decade—because the underlying physics just don’t add up." Similarly, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has also dismissed the hydrogen fuel cell approach, once tweeting on social media: "Fuel cells are an 'IQ tax'—using them in cars is a downright stupid choice."
From the perspective of its critics, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have a significantly lower energy conversion efficiency compared to pure electric vehicles, making them less "energy-efficient." According to data released by the Volkswagen Group, when it comes to energy conversion, pure electric vehicles achieve an overall efficiency rate of 70% to 90% as they transform energy from other sources into electricity. In contrast, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles must undergo multiple processes—such as electrolysis, compression, and liquefaction—from external energy sources, ultimately resulting in an efficiency rate of only 25% to 35%.

Supporters are largely concentrated among Japanese and Korean automakers. According to foreign media reports, in the first half of this year, Hyundai delivered 4,700 fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs) globally, a significant year-on-year increase of 62.7%, capturing a market share of 51.7%—higher than Toyota's 40.9%. Although Toyota has lost its top spot, the company's hydrogen fuel cell vehicle sales have surged by 8.3 times compared to the same period last year, led notably by the all-new Mirai 2 model, which accounted for 3,700 units delivered.
Compared to electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles also boast advantages in several key areas. First, hydrogen fuel cells can be refueled directly with hydrogen, allowing for energy replenishment at a pace similar to that of conventional gasoline-powered cars. Second, hydrogen fuel cells offer a high energy density, enabling vehicles to achieve a range of over 500 kilometers effortlessly—without suffering from cold-temperature performance degradation. Additionally, there’s no risk of spontaneous combustion due to battery short circuits, making them better suited to meet the energy demands of various types of transportation, especially heavy-duty vehicles or even ships. In fact, last December, Hyundai Motor Company positioned hydrogen energy solutions as one of its three core business pillars and launched its proprietary fuel cell system brand, "HTWO," aiming to accelerate the growth of its hydrogen fuel cell business and foster the development of a comprehensive hydrogen ecosystem. Meanwhile, Toyota Motor Corporation announced in February of this year the development of a compact, highly integrated hydrogen fuel cell system module package—perfectly adaptable for use in diverse mobile or stationary power generators.
Additionally, Honda Motor Co. stated that discontinuing the CLARITY does not signify a retreat from its hydrogen fuel strategy. Honda continues to view hydrogen fuel cell vehicles—powered by electricity generated from hydrogen—as the ultimate eco-friendly automotive solution. As a key component of its electrification strategy, Honda remains committed to actively promoting renewable energy products and accelerating the development of hydrogen fuel cell technology, aiming to establish it as the ultimate zero-emission solution. Currently, the next-generation hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is already under vigorous development, with plans to launch it into the market in 2023.
Although hydrogen fuel cell vehicles currently account for a small share of new energy vehicles in China, their orderly development aligns with the country’s energy and environmental development strategies as they remain the primary means of utilizing hydrogen at this stage. According to the "2020 White Paper on Hydrogen Application Development," more than 20 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government), cities, and counties across China have already introduced approximately 42 specialized policies aimed at advancing the hydrogen energy industry. These initiatives primarily focus on promoting hydrogen-powered vehicles—especially city buses and logistics trucks—alongside core efforts in R&D of cutting-edge hydrogen fuel cell technologies, building essential infrastructure such as hydrogen refueling stations, and constructing demonstration zones for hydrogen-based urban communities. In 2020, China’s fleet of fuel cell-powered buses, trucks, and logistics vehicles stood at 2,500, 4,070, and 780 units, respectively.

"Previously, capital investments in hydrogen fuel cells may have been focused solely on this particular technology or a single market. However, the ambitious goals of peaking carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality have opened up greater potential for the hydrogen energy industry, while also making the growth prospects for fuel cell vehicle markets even clearer," said Wei Wei, R&D and Strategy Director at Guofu Hydrogen Energy. That said, the current development of hydrogen fuel cells still faces numerous challenges. Some argue that the industry is currently grappling with four major pain points: first, the limited availability of hydrogen; second, high production costs; third, heavy reliance on imported materials; and fourth, an incomplete regulatory framework that hinders large-scale commercial deployment.
It is understood that, in the manufacturing stage, most domestic hydrogen fuel cell industry chain enterprises have yet to achieve mass production. Some core materials and technologies still face developmental bottlenecks, leading to high R&D investments for these companies, relatively low product output, and persistently high manufacturing costs. The combination of elevated costs across all segments of the industry chain has resulted in hydrogen fuel cell vehicles being significantly more expensive than both pure electric vehicles and conventional gasoline-powered cars.
According to Qi Haikun, President of Beijing Te Yi Sunshine New Energy, the current "bottleneck" issue in the hydrogen energy industry lies in the midstream segments—specifically, "hydrogen storage and transportation." Meanwhile, hydrogen refueling stations and downstream application sectors remain small in scale and limited in number, leading to an imbalanced match between supply and demand. This imbalance, in turn, has resulted in an incomplete and inadequate hydrogen energy supply chain. Additionally, the investment cost for building a hydrogen refueling station is currently more than five times higher than that of a conventional gas station. "How to reduce the investment costs of hydrogen refueling stations is therefore an urgent priority," said Qi Haikun.
However, the industry remains optimistic about the development prospects of hydrogen fuel cells. "After the implementation of the 'subsidy-for-reward' policy, the network of hydrogen refueling stations has become more comprehensive, and leading companies will gradually emerge in various niche segments. We expect the first turning point for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to arrive around 2025, with China's fleet of fuel cell cars reaching 100,000 units. By 2030, we anticipate a second major milestone, as the number of fuel cell vehicles in operation will surge to 1 million," said Lu Bingbing, General Manager of J-Hydrogen Technology.

Translated from Sina Auto

Email:
info@adtfm.com

Phone:
021-20532053

Address:
2nd Floor, No. 150 Jindian Road, Pudong New Area, Shanghai