Energy-efficient and new-energy vehicles will share the market equally by 2035.

——Competing in Hybrid Technology: Autonomous vs. Japanese Brands

The "Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0," officially released on October 27 (hereinafter referred to as the "Roadmap"), indicates that by 2035, China's annual sales of energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles will each account for half of the market, marking a full electrification transition of the automotive industry. Hybrid technology will be promoted as the most critical energy-saving innovation in the automotive sector, with all passenger vehicles powered by conventional fuels eventually transitioning to hybrid models—signifying a notable rise in the prominence of hybrid technology.
Notably, the roadmap clearly states that by 2035, sales of new-energy vehicles in China will become mainstream. Compared to Version 1.0 of the roadmap, the target for new-energy vehicle sales has also been adjusted. On one hand, at the 2025 milestone, the annual sales share of new-energy vehicles has increased slightly—from the original 15% to 20% to around 20%. On the other hand, by 2030, the sales target for new-energy vehicles has been lowered, dropping from the previous range of 40% to 50% down to approximately 40%.
In recent years, as subsidies have gradually been reduced, China's new-energy vehicle industry has encountered certain bottlenecks. Since July last year, sales of new-energy vehicles have steadily declined—only turning positive again in July of this year.
Speaking to a reporter from Caixin, Wang Binggang, head of the National New Energy Vehicle Innovation Project Expert Group, said: "After subsidies begin to taper off, the growth in electric vehicle sales will primarily be driven by market demand. Currently, micro-sized and high-end electric vehicles are less reliant on subsidy policies, while models positioned between these two segments still depend heavily on government incentives. In the coming period, supportive policies will continue to play a crucial role, and some cities will even introduce additional purchase incentives for new-energy vehicles. Moreover, the revised dual-credit policy is expected to indirectly influence companies' sales strategies or their investment in product development."

Additionally, Wang Binggang also noted that micro electric vehicles are already fully equipped to compete with fuel-powered cars, yet they still require government support to boost their adoption. Regarding the potential ban on fuel car sales, he pointed out that, considering China's current road conditions, energy consumption patterns, cost considerations, and the development of related industrial chains, internal combustion engines still hold a distinct cost advantage. Therefore, it would be unwise to prematurely abandon petroleum-based energy altogether. Instead, developing energy-efficient vehicles remains a sensible approach, while traditional cars will gradually transition toward hybrid models. According to the plan, by 2035, all conventional fuel vehicles are expected to be fully converted into hybrid cars, ultimately achieving an even split in market share with new-energy vehicles in the overall automotive market.
"This points global automakers toward a new path. Currently, on a global scale, only China's本土 brands and Japanese automakers have achieved significant success in developing hybrid and plug-in hybrid technologies. As China continues to send out positive signals, it will undoubtedly attract more global automakers to channel their R&D efforts into hybrid vehicles." A source from a joint-venture automaker told reporters that after China’s push to encourage hybrid cars, it’s bound to trigger a "catfish effect" among Japanese automakers—further underscoring the growing confidence of China’s automotive industry.
Wang Binggang believes that while it’s undeniable that Japanese automakers lead in technology, market dynamics will inevitably attract more companies to invest in hybrid vehicle development, fostering the emergence of even stronger players. This, in turn, will further enhance the global competitiveness and R&D capabilities of Chinese automakers, presenting a crucial opportunity for China’s automotive industry to leapfrog ahead on the global stage.
Li Jun, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and Chairman of the China Automotive Engineering Society, pointed out during the release of Roadmap 2.0 that the automotive industry is now witnessing a scenario where multiple technological pathways are developing in parallel. While energy-efficient vehicles will continue to dominate the market for some time, major countries and leading enterprises are accelerating their strategic shifts toward electrification. Meanwhile, the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry is also expected to gain momentum sooner than anticipated. Nevertheless, as a strategically emerging industry vital to China's long-term development, new-energy vehicles remain the indispensable path toward building a global automotive powerhouse.
Additionally, pure electric vehicles remain the mainstream approach for new-energy automobiles. Li Jun pointed out that by 2035, China's new-energy vehicle power battery technology will generally hold an internationally leading position, with a complete, independent, and controllable power battery industry chain. Meanwhile, domestically branded pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles will feature product technologies on par with international standards. By then, new-energy vehicles are expected to account for more than 50% of total car sales, with pure electric vehicles making up over 95% of the new-energy segment.

Translated from Sina Auto

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